Hitting the Gulf may deter strikes but cost Iran its mediators
The United States has told several Middle Eastern governments to prepare for renewed strikes against Iran after the 3 November midterms, and for possible Iranian retaliation, two unnamed diplomats told AP News on 28 October. President Trump has not taken a final decision, they said, and the White House declined to comment. The Wall Street Journal reported plans for a short, intensive campaign, with an extra Patriot battery for Israel. Trump has previously hinted that this would be a joint US-Israel endeavour, as he and Netanyahu share the same strategic aims on Iran.
Tehran now has a short window to deter a fresh round of strikes. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that Iran remains in close contact with intermediaries while its armed forces stand ready. But Iran’s two levers increasingly work against each other. Its most credible deterrent is the threat to hit US hosts across the Gulf and disrupt Hormuz, yet those same Gulf states provide its diplomatic channels. Qatar, its primary mediator, said on 27 October that Iran must show good intentions for mediation to succeed, while Pakistan, another mediator, has invoked its defence pact with Saudi Arabia to deter Iranian strikes.
By warning Gulf governments in advance, Washington is also drawing them into its preparations, making them parties rather than neutral brokers. A short campaign is unlikely to destroy Iran’s missile and drone production, which Western officials say survived months of strikes, so Tehran keeps the means to retaliate. Striking only Israel and US forces would preserve the Gulf channels, but striking Gulf soil would trade them for short-term deterrence. Which option Tehran pursues will show whether it still sees diplomacy as a way out of the war, or has concluded that only imposing costs works.
