Dual-capable systems are missiles that can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, creating ambiguity in crisis situations and increasing the risk of misinterpretation and unintended escalation.
Documents: 📂 Source Document
Escalation in the Dark
Escalation in the Dark: China’s Nuclear Expansion and the Collapse of Predictability
Key Insights
This article asks how China’s nuclear expansion affects escalation risks in a crisis, particularly over Taiwan. It argues that the key shift is not the size of China’s arsenal, but the growing uncertainty surrounding decision-making, driven by reduced transparency and compressed timelines. It concludes that deterrence is becoming less predictable and increasingly shaped by perception, raising the risk of miscalculation.
Cite this brief
Vesterholm, Y. (2026). Escalation in the Dark. EPIS Insight · Security Policy & Defence.
