Tehran’s threat will test NATO alliance cohesion regarding the US-Iran war
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee, announced Iran would fire missiles at Europe if Washington used bases there, to attack Iran naming Germany and Italy. He said European states had already joined the war by granting base access, and that Iran would also target the “material and non-material assets” of countries helping the US. The IRGC also pledged a response “without geographical limits”, on a banner appeared outside the German embassy in Tehran, and US-Iran talks stalled over Iran’s seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The IRGC’s “no geographical limits” pledge and the reported order to update Iran’s “target bank” point to a deliberate widening of where Iran says it can strike. The main purpose is coercion. By treating base access as joining the war, Tehran wants to make hosting US operations costly and to split European capitals from Washington. Spain’s refusal of base use could be exploited by Tehran, as could Germany’s own debate over Ramstein, including the Bundestag legal advisers’ concerns about German indirect involvement.
The threat, however, is called into question regarding missile range limits. The Khorramshahr missile variants with lighter warheads could potentially exceed a 2,000km range. Even so, Western officials will likely still judge the direct missile threat to be real but limited to southern and south-eastern Europe. German bases remain at or beyond the range Iran has actually shown. The reference to “non-material assets” indicates greater danger. It hints at cyber operations, undersea cables, proxy plots or strikes on European forces in the region. Tehran will, therefore, most likely turn to sabotage and hybrid warfare in Europe as a means to indirectly pressure Washington to negotiate a ceasefire.
