South America
Empowering a continent of opportunity and growth
The Working Group South America, exploring security, governance, and economic trends, analyses political stability, organised crime, and foreign influence in South America. It assesses regional defence cooperation, trade relations, and security threats. Monthly briefings offer fact-based analyses and visualisations on South America's evolving geopolitical role in international affairs.
From Moscow to Caracas
In an era of rapidly developing social media, cyber threats such as manipulation, fake news, and disinformation are also expanding as elements of planned…
Who Speaks for Mercosur?
Main question: Who gets to speak for Mercosur in the EU–Mercosur deal? Argument: In Brazil and Argentina, the deal is filtered through elite mediation, not…
A Promise Made Too Soon:
After capturing Maduro, the White House made one thing clear: They aim to revive the Venezuelan oil industry. Though an exciting project to some, it might just…
El Super Tazón: Bad Bunny’s Soft Power Moment
The briefing assesses how Bad Bunny’s 2026 Super Bowl performance operates as an intervention in hemispheric power relations. It contends that his deployment…
The Conditional Power of Non-Kinetic Warfare
To what extent did Operation Absolute Resolve demonstrate a scalable model for bypassing sophisticated A2/AD systems through multi-domain non-kinetic fires?…
Humanitarian Aid under Pressure
The 11th Humanitarian Symposium Munich was devoted to the topic “Humanitarian aid in the light of the current geopolitical situation”. Accordingly, the agenda…
After Maduro’s Ouster: Transition or Recast?
Main Question: Is Venezuela heading toward a democratic transition or a market-authoritarian reconfiguration after Maduro’s ouster? Argument: Early changes…
Bolivia’s Environmental Policy Since Evo Morales
Is it possible for Bolivia to promote an environmental-forward political agenda while reproducing the structures of a neoliberal-capitalisit world system?…
South America’s Turn to the Right
Is South America’s shift to the right ideological or cyclical? Voters have turned to right-wing leaders mainly because of economic problems, crime, and…
COP30: Europe Under Pressure Without the US
MQ: How has Europe navigated COP30’s climate negotiations and energy transition amid the US absence? MA: With the US absent, Europe took center stage,…
Indigenous Rights at COP30 in Brazil
To what extent does COP30 take into account the rights and participation of Indigenous people affected by climate change in Brazil? Whilst COP30 improved…
The Transnational Engine of Tren de Aragua
RQ: How did Tren de Aragua use Venezuela’s crisis and migrant routes to move from a prison gang to a transnational network? Argument: Its expansion stems from…
Petro’s Challenge: Decolonising R2P in Gaza
This brief examines how Colombian President Petro’s call for R2P intervention in Gaza challenges Western selective enforcement of humanitarian norms. It argues…
In the Eyes of Empire
– Why do Latin American elites keep courting foreign power—chasing recognition abroad while trading away sovereignty? – A fantasy of imperial…
What is Happening to People in El Salvador?
Can El Salvador’s state of exception, declared to combat gang violence, justify suspending constitutional rights and widespread human rights abuses? While the…
Critical Raw Materials in Argentina and Brazil
Main Question: How do Argentina and Brazil balance climate rhetoric with mining policy on critical raw materials? Argument: Despite opposite discourses (Lula’s…
Bolivia’s Environmental Challenge
– Will it ever be possible for Bolivia to promote an environmental-forward political agenda while reproducing the structures of a neoliberal-capitalisit world…
Latin America
How can Latin America achieve true strategic autonomy amid U.S. retreat and authoritarian advances? The article argues that multipolarity alone does not…
Peru’s Crime Surge: Gangs and State Response
Main question: How is Peru addressing the rise in organized crime? Argument: The government’s militarized response and harsher laws for minors fail to tackle…
Trump’s Trade War and Its Mixed Impact on Brazil
How will Trump’s trade offensive reshape Brazil’s economic position in the global market? Brazil emerges as the unlikely beneficiary of a trade war it didn’t…
